WhenWin scans political prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi every 2 hours. We flag elections, policy, and government markets where the crowd price diverges from polling data and historical calibration.
Political markets are driven by sentiment more than evidence. Crowds overreact to news cycles and underweight base rates from historical elections and policy outcomes. WhenWin cross-references polling averages, historical election calibration, and structural features of each market to find where the price is wrong.
US elections and primaries. Congressional legislation and confirmation votes. International elections and referenda. Government appointments and policy decisions trading on Polymarket or Kalshi.
Every pick is tracked publicly. See the full history on the performance page.